The post-pandemic economic order has made one thing clear: the era of frictionless globalization is over. From semiconductor shortages to fragile shipping routes, the shocks of the 2020s have triggered a profound rethink in how companies, governments, and investors assess global risk. The result has been the rise of a powerful macro trend—de-globalization. To quantify it, economists and strategists have created a new tool: the De-Globalization Index, a composite measure that tracks trade fragmentation, policy barriers, supply chain localization, and capital flow restrictions across regions. And what it reveals is more than just geopolitical noise—it’s pointing to where future investment alpha may emerge.
As the index climbs, it signals that global integration is slowing or reversing. This has massive implications for sectoral returns over the next decade, especially for industries linked to logistics, industrial automation, regional manufacturing, and infrastructure. But where exactly are the opportunities—and what pitfalls must investors avoid?
Regional Supply Chain Reshoring Metrics
The clearest impact of de-globalization shows up in supply chain data. Across the U.S., Europe, and parts of Asia, companies are bringing production closer to home. In 2024 alone, U.S. companies announced over $200 billion in reshoring-related capital expenditures, particularly in semiconductors, EV battery components, and critical pharmaceutical ingredients. These moves are being tracked in the De-Globalization Index through metrics like domestic sourcing ratios, trade partner concentration scores, and onshore capital investment as a percentage of GDP.
What the data shows is a dramatic uptick in reshoring momentum since 2021, driven by three core forces. First, the COVID-era disruption exposed how reliant companies were on China-centric manufacturing. Second, rising geopolitical friction—especially between the U.S. and China—has created legal and regulatory incentives to shift supply lines. Third, technological advances in automation have made it more economically feasible to produce high-value goods closer to end markets, reducing the historical labor cost arbitrage that justified offshore production.
Industries most impacted by reshoring include semiconductors (with the CHIPS Act funding expansion in Arizona and Texas), pharmaceuticals (reshoring active ingredients from India and China), and automotive components, where North American EV supply chains are being rebuilt with Mexican and Canadian partners. The knock-on effect is visible in regional economic data. States like Ohio, Texas, and Tennessee are reporting manufacturing job growth not seen in decades. Meanwhile, Asian nations like Vietnam and India are capturing partial rerouted flows, positioning themselves as geopolitical hedges—not full replacements—for China.
Industrial Real Estate Hotspots
One of the most direct beneficiaries of de-globalization has been industrial real estate. As manufacturers reshore, they require new warehousing, logistics hubs, and production facilities. According to CBRE and JLL, demand for industrial real estate in the U.S. reached record highs in 2024, with vacancy rates in key hubs like Inland Empire, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Atlanta dipping below 3%. The De-Globalization Index includes a real estate signal, measuring lease activity tied to logistics, reshoring, and e-commerce fulfillment, all of which are now accelerating again post-inflation plateau.
What’s driving this is not just manufacturing, but also last-mile warehousing demand as companies rewire their distribution networks for shorter supply chains. The shift from “just-in-time” to “just-in-case” inventory management is leading to larger buffer stock requirements, which in turn increase the square footage per firm needed in domestic locations. Add to this the rise in nearshoring to Mexico, and industrial parks along the U.S.-Mexico border—especially in Monterrey, Tijuana, and El Paso—are seeing lease prices spike by over 20% year-on-year.
Publicly traded REITs with exposure to this theme—like Prologis, Rexford Industrial, and Terreno Realty—are being reevaluated by analysts who previously valued them through the narrow lens of e-commerce. Now they are seen as key infrastructure providers in a fragmented trade environment, benefiting not just from Amazon-like tenants but also from auto suppliers, robotics firms, and pharmaceutical distributors. Their income streams, while still tied to cyclical demand, are increasingly driven by structural supply chain reconfiguration.
Small-Cap Beneficiaries
While much of the media spotlight shines on megaprojects and blue-chip multinationals, the De-Globalization Index also illuminates opportunities in small and mid-cap equities. These companies often fly under the radar but are embedded deep in regional supply chains, industrial software, or materials processing. For example, small-cap U.S. steel fabricators, packaging equipment makers, and automation integrators are seeing rising orders from firms looking to modernize domestic production lines.
Examples include companies like Encore Wire (domestic wire and cable for U.S. electrical infrastructure), AZZ Inc. (metal coating services for industrial facilities), and ESAB Corp. (welding and cutting automation for reshoring factories). These names are not typically found in mainstream ESG or tech portfolios, but they are gaining traction as reshoring becomes a national policy priority. In fact, several industrial ETFs are beginning to overweight these names as manufacturing data outperforms service-sector indicators.
Another group of winners includes software firms offering digital twin and factory optimization tools. As reshoring spreads, firms need to maximize productivity without expanding headcount. That’s where companies like PTC (industrial IoT), AspenTech (process optimization), and Rockwell Automation (factory robotics) come into play. While large-cap tech remains cyclical and exposed to consumer sentiment, these industrial software providers are experiencing steady multi-year tailwinds aligned with the slow-motion manufacturing renaissance.
Risks in a Fragmenting World
While the upside potential in a de-globalizing world is real, there are important risks to consider. First, the inflationary impact of localized production is not trivial. The very reason global trade scaled up was cost efficiency—reshoring introduces redundancies, higher labor costs, and less competitive pricing. For firms unable to pass through these costs, margin compression becomes a real danger.
Second, the geopolitics that catalyze reshoring can just as easily disrupt it. Tariff wars, regional conflicts, or new trade alliances can shift the landscape overnight. Investors betting on U.S.-centric manufacturing must still monitor Washington’s trade policy for volatility risk.
Third, not every reshoring initiative will succeed. Some regions lack the skilled labor or energy infrastructure to support scaled manufacturing. Without sustained training programs and energy policy reforms, parts of the U.S. could overbuild before demand materializes. This has implications for real estate and infrastructure investors banking on long-duration leasing models.
Finally, valuation risk must be managed. Many reshoring plays have already rallied sharply since mid-2023, and while earnings are improving, some stocks are trading on stretched multiples relative to their historical averages. Active managers need to distinguish between narrative-driven spikes and companies with durable earnings power.
Conclusion
The De-Globalization Index is more than an academic metric—it’s a window into how capital is repositioning itself in a world that increasingly values resilience over efficiency. From factories in the American South to industrial parks in northern Mexico, the investment landscape is being redrawn along regional lines. Industrial real estate, automation, and overlooked small caps stand to benefit as globalization takes a more fragmented form.
For investors willing to zoom in on where the economic center of gravity is shifting—not just globally but regionally—this era of de-globalization may offer some of the most enduring and differentiated alpha of the decade. It’s not the end of globalization, but a dramatic reshaping—and with it comes a new investment map worth exploring.
