In a move that stunned even seasoned crypto traders, Bitcoin vaulted past $104,500 in early June 2025, marking its fastest $10,000 gain since the post-COVID boom in 2021. Less than 72 hours earlier, it was trading at $93,000. Social media erupted, traditional finance scrambled to explain the spike, and skeptics, as always, called it unsustainable. But beneath the surge lies a convergence of structural shifts that go well beyond hype: a historic flood of institutional inflows, a tightening post-halving supply dynamic, and a renewed Wall Street acceptance of Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset—but as a strategic portfolio component. With MicroStrategy and Coinbase playing dramatically different roles in the investor narrative, the question now is not just why Bitcoin jumped, but what will sustain it—or sink it—from here.
Bitcoin’s $100K breakout had been predicted so often it became meme-worthy. But this time, the stars aligned. Chief among the catalysts was a renewed wave of capital pouring into spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton. Data from Glassnode and Bloomberg shows that over $2.3 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in just eight trading sessions leading up to the breakout, the fastest pace of net inflows since the SEC’s approval of the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF back in January. Unlike the prior retail-driven bull runs, this surge had institutional fingerprints all over it—pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and macro hedge funds who had largely sat out the 2020–2021 mania.
Why now? Part of the answer lies in regulatory clarity. In May 2025, the U.S. Treasury, working in coordination with the SEC and CFTC, finalized a digital asset oversight framework that for the first time treated Bitcoin and Ethereum as “commodity-like strategic reserves” when held by regulated funds. That ruling opened the floodgates for larger institutions who previously saw custodial and compliance risk as barriers. BlackRock’s IBTC fund, which had plateaued at $35 billion in AUM in Q1, exploded past $52 billion within a single month. Bitcoin wasn’t just being bought—it was being assimilated into models that had previously excluded it entirely.
But regulatory green lights don’t explain the ferocity of the rally alone. The 2024 halving—Bitcoin’s programmed reduction in mining rewards every four years—also played its part. Historically, halvings reduce the amount of new Bitcoin entering circulation, which has in the past triggered delayed price surges. The 2024 halving cut rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, slashing the daily issuance by half. While many anticipated the price implications, few predicted the lag effect. It wasn’t until miners began holding instead of selling that supply pressure truly fell. Add to that the ETF demand and you get a liquidity squeeze of textbook proportions.
Macro conditions helped too. With real interest rates expected to peak mid-2025 and the Federal Reserve signaling no further hikes, capital began rotating back into long-duration risk assets. Equities, particularly tech, have already rallied 18% YTD, but Bitcoin—still perceived as an uncorrelated hedge by many macro strategists—offered a different kind of upside. JPMorgan’s global asset allocation team even upgraded their Bitcoin weighting in late May, calling it a “non-sovereign alternative asset that deserves allocation in a bifurcated macro regime.” Such language would’ve been unthinkable in 2022 when crypto was reeling from the FTX and Terra meltdowns.
Yet the market is not just looking at Bitcoin itself, but its proxies. MicroStrategy remains one of the most aggressive corporate holders of Bitcoin, with over 214,000 BTC on its balance sheet as of June 2025. Its stock surged more than 30% in the days surrounding the breakout, outperforming both Bitcoin and tech peers. Investors see it as a high-beta Bitcoin play, amplified by Michael Saylor’s continued evangelism. The company now uses its software cash flows not just to buy BTC, but to fund innovative products like Bitcoin treasury APIs for corporates—a niche but growing market. Still, concerns persist. MicroStrategy’s equity is volatile, deeply tethered to BTC’s swings, and may underperform if Bitcoin flattens while rates rise.
Coinbase, meanwhile, tells a different story. Its stock climbed 12% on the back of higher trading volumes and custodial inflows, but it faces headwinds in the form of regulatory fees, competition from decentralized exchanges, and slower user growth in the U.S. Nevertheless, Coinbase remains the prime on-ramp for institutions buying Bitcoin through ETFs and custodianship platforms. It’s also seen as a reliable infrastructure play in a world where on-chain activity is migrating to Bitcoin’s L2 solutions like Stacks and the Lightning Network. Still, analysts warn that Coinbase’s core retail revenue may plateau if Bitcoin doesn’t sustain above $100,000.
Looking forward, the bull case for Bitcoin is compelling but conditional. Much depends on the behavior of ETF inflows. If the institutional bid remains strong, Bitcoin could consolidate and even push toward $120,000 by year-end. Several strategists—including those at Bernstein and Standard Chartered—have published models projecting a $150,000 target by Q1 2026, assuming a persistent inflow rate of $250 million per week. These models also assume minimal regulatory shocks and stable macro conditions—two assumptions that can’t be taken for granted.
On the other side, the bear case hinges on the cyclical nature of crypto enthusiasm. Halving effects tend to fade, and past cycles have seen Bitcoin correct 30–40% even during bull phases. Moreover, if inflation proves stickier than expected, central banks could delay rate cuts, pressuring risk assets. A sudden drop in ETF demand or new custodial regulation could trigger steep reversals. Then there’s the overhang of government wallets—both the U.S. and German governments hold substantial amounts of BTC seized in legal actions. Any signal that these might be sold could roil markets quickly.
So what’s next? Traders are watching the $100K level closely—not just as a psychological milestone, but as a zone of expected volatility. Options data from Deribit indicates massive open interest around the $105K and $110K strike prices, suggesting the market is bracing for either a clean breakout or a harsh rejection. On-chain analytics show that long-term holders are beginning to distribute small amounts, but nothing resembling the mass exits seen during prior peaks. Glassnode’s dormancy flow metric still suggests that the bull cycle has room to run.
For long-term investors, the strategy remains nuanced. Bitcoin is no longer a purely retail or speculative asset. It’s being integrated into institutional portfolios, university endowments, and even sovereign hedge strategies. But that doesn’t make it risk-free. Volatility remains high, narrative sensitivity is acute, and geopolitical shocks—like the rumored digital yuan sanctions protocol—could inject unexpected headwinds. Still, in a world where fiat credibility is increasingly questioned and cross-border capital flows are more digitized than ever, Bitcoin offers something few assets can: a global, 24/7, censorship-resistant store of value.
Perhaps that’s why the jump to $104,500 didn’t trigger euphoria so much as recalibration. For a new class of allocators, Bitcoin is no longer about 10x dreams—it’s about 10% allocations. And that may be the most bullish shift of all.
