Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are rapidly evolving from theoretical concepts to tangible pilots and implementations worldwide. While much attention has focused on domestic retail and wholesale uses of CBDCs, a critical frontier lies in cross-border settlements. The traditional international payment system is often slow, costly, and fragmented, and central banks view CBDCs as a transformative tool to enhance efficiency, transparency, and security in global transactions. Preparing for this new era involves complex technical, regulatory, and diplomatic challenges. Among the most closely watched initiatives is the mBridge project, a collaborative effort by several Asian central banks aimed at creating a multi-CBDC platform for cross-border payments. Yet, these innovations face resistance, notably from commercial banks concerned about disintermediation, as well as the potential ripple effects on the global forex market. Understanding how central banks are navigating these challenges sheds light on the future of international finance and monetary cooperation.
The mBridge Project: A Regional Collaboration in Action
Launched as a joint initiative by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the Bank of Thailand, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, and the Digital Currency Institute of the People’s Bank of China, the mBridge project represents one of the most advanced efforts to develop interoperable CBDCs for cross-border payments. The project aims to build a platform leveraging distributed ledger technology (DLT) to enable real-time, low-cost, and transparent settlement of multiple CBDCs between the participating jurisdictions.
As of mid-2025, mBridge has progressed beyond proof-of-concept testing into pilot phases that involve simulated cross-border transfers, currency conversions, and liquidity management functions. The system operates on a permissioned blockchain network that links the participating central banks and authorized financial institutions. One notable feature is its integration of smart contracts to automate compliance checks, anti-money laundering (AML) controls, and foreign exchange rate adjustments, reducing manual intervention and settlement risks.
mBridge’s pilots have demonstrated significant reductions in transaction times—from days in the conventional correspondent banking model to mere seconds or minutes—and material cost savings by bypassing multiple intermediaries. Furthermore, the platform allows 24/7 operation, an advantage over the limited hours of traditional clearinghouses. These developments mark a potential paradigm shift in how cross-border payments could be structured globally.
The project is also notable for fostering regional monetary cooperation, which could eventually expand to include other central banks and currency zones. By designing a common infrastructure, mBridge aims to overcome the current patchwork of incompatible systems, fragmented liquidity pools, and opaque fees that burden international trade and remittances.
Commercial Bank Pushback: Risks of Disintermediation and Profit Loss
Despite the technical promise of cross-border CBDC platforms like mBridge, commercial banks have expressed significant reservations. Their concerns center on the potential disintermediation effects, where central banks’ direct settlement platforms reduce the role and profitability of traditional correspondent banking networks.
Commercial banks derive substantial revenue from foreign exchange spreads, payment processing fees, and liquidity provision associated with cross-border transfers. A shift toward direct CBDC settlements could squeeze these income streams by eliminating intermediaries and compressing margins. Banks worry that they may be relegated to peripheral roles or lose direct customer relationships for international transactions.
Additionally, banks highlight operational risks related to integrating with multiple CBDC systems and adapting legacy infrastructure to new DLT-based protocols. The uncertainty surrounding regulatory frameworks for CBDC operations further complicates their willingness to fully embrace these platforms.
In response, some commercial banks are advocating for hybrid models where they continue to serve as intermediaries or liquidity providers within CBDC networks, rather than being fully bypassed. Others are investing in their own blockchain solutions to compete or partner with central bank projects. The evolving interplay between central banks and commercial banks will be critical in shaping the eventual architecture of cross-border CBDC settlements.
Forex Market Implications: Volatility, Liquidity, and New Dynamics
The widespread adoption of CBDCs for international payments could also have profound implications for forex markets. Traditionally, forex trading is centralized around interbank networks, with liquidity provided by large commercial banks, hedge funds, and institutional investors. CBDC cross-border platforms could disrupt this dynamic in several ways.
First, direct CBDC settlements with automated currency conversion may reduce reliance on traditional forex intermediaries, compressing spreads and potentially reducing liquidity in conventional FX markets. This could increase volatility if market participants are unable to rapidly absorb shocks or adjust positions.
Second, CBDCs could enable real-time transparency of FX flows and holdings, which might reduce information asymmetries but also introduce new forms of market surveillance. This greater visibility could influence central bank policies or prompt coordinated interventions in forex markets.
Third, the introduction of programmable money via CBDCs raises the possibility of automated currency risk hedging embedded in payments, which could alter demand patterns and speculative activity.
Lastly, the potential for central banks to collaborate on cross-border CBDC platforms might foster more coordinated FX policies or prompt new multilateral agreements, shifting the geopolitical balance of currency influence.
Portfolio managers and forex traders are closely monitoring pilot outcomes and regulatory developments to assess how CBDCs might change liquidity structures, pricing models, and risk management strategies in the coming years.
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
While projects like mBridge demonstrate impressive progress, numerous hurdles remain before CBDC cross-border settlements become mainstream. Technical challenges include ensuring scalability to handle high volumes, cybersecurity resilience, interoperability with legacy systems, and seamless user experiences for banks and corporate clients.
On the regulatory front, harmonizing AML, know-your-customer (KYC), and data privacy standards across jurisdictions is complex but essential for trust and compliance. Legal frameworks governing CBDC issuance, cross-border use, and dispute resolution need clarity.
Geopolitical considerations also play a role, as countries weigh the implications of participating in shared CBDC platforms versus preserving monetary sovereignty and strategic advantages.
Nevertheless, the benefits of faster, cheaper, and more transparent cross-border payments create strong incentives for central banks and the private sector to advance these innovations. The evolving dialogue between central banks and commercial banks, alongside engagement with technology providers and international bodies like the Bank for International Settlements, will shape the eventual architecture of global CBDC settlements.
In conclusion, central banks are proactively preparing for CBDC cross-border settlements through ambitious projects such as mBridge, while balancing technical innovation with commercial banking interests and forex market stability. The coming years will be critical in determining whether CBDCs can fulfill their promise to revolutionize international payments or remain niche tools within the broader financial ecosystem.
